摘要：基于全國人口普查數(shù)據(jù)與中國不婚不育少育群體專項調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，系統(tǒng)分析1990~2020年中國晚婚不婚現(xiàn)象的演變趨勢、特征及原因。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國大齡未婚人口規(guī)模持續(xù)增長，男性增量更大，女性增速更快，城鎮(zhèn)增速快于農(nóng)村且規(guī)模在2010年后反超農(nóng)村，初中學歷增量最大，大專及以上學歷增速最快；終身不婚人口始終保持增長態(tài)勢，男性多于女性，農(nóng)村多于城鎮(zhèn)，低學歷增量最大，但近年來高學歷終身不婚人口規(guī)模增長及終身不婚水平提升明顯；當前中國大齡未婚群體結(jié)婚意愿較低，婚戀表現(xiàn)消極，未來很可能進一步拉低結(jié)婚率、推高晚婚不婚水平。合適婚配資源短缺與經(jīng)濟壓力較大是制約大齡未婚群體步入婚姻的主要因素，建議從拓展婚配網(wǎng)絡(luò)與降低結(jié)婚經(jīng)濟成本入手構(gòu)建婚姻支持政策體系，助力適齡人群實現(xiàn)結(jié)婚愿望。

關(guān)鍵詞: 大齡未婚, 終身不婚, 結(jié)婚意愿, 婚姻支持

Abstract: Based on data from population censuses and a specialized survey, this paper systematically examines the trends, characteristics, and determinants of late marriage and non-marriage in China from 1990 to 2020. The findings reveal that the size of the never-married population aged 30 and above has been growing since 1990, with a larger absolute increase among men but a faster growth rate among women. The urban never-married population surpassed the rural never-married population after 2010. Among the never-married population aged 30 and above, those with a junior high school education constitute the largest increment, while those with a college degree or higher exhibit the fastest growth rate. In addition, the lifelong never-married population has grown, with men outnumbering women and in rural areas exceeding in urban areas. While the largest increment occurred among those with lower educational attainment, recent years have witnessed accelerated increases in both the size and prevalence of non-marriage among highly educated groups. Further analysis reveals that never-married people aged 30 and above exhibit low marriage intentions and demonstrate passive dating behaviors, which are likely to further depress marriage rates and elevate late marriage and non-marriage rates. Structural mismatches in marriage markets and economic pressures are the predominant factors influencing marital decision-making. The study proposes marital support policies focusing on expanding partner-matching networks and reducing the economic costs of marriage.

Keywords: Late Marriage, Non-Marriage, Marriage Intention, Marital Support

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網(wǎng)址: 中國晚婚不婚現(xiàn)象：趨勢、特征與原因 http://www.u1s5d6.cn/newsview1730032.html