摘要：基于第七次全國人口普查數(shù)據(jù)并結(jié)合第四、五、六次全國人口普查數(shù)據(jù),全面分析近年來中國男性婚姻擠壓的態(tài)勢與特征。研究表明,男性婚姻擠壓現(xiàn)象及其后果已全面顯現(xiàn):2010~2020年全國婚齡人口性別比急劇升高,預(yù)計2036年將升至峰值116.13;與以往主要集中在社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展較為落后的地區(qū)不同,當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟發(fā)達且城鎮(zhèn)化率較高地區(qū)的未婚男性過?，F(xiàn)象也逐步顯現(xiàn);男性婚姻擠壓導(dǎo)致男女兩性間初婚水平和模式的差異巨大,男性初婚概率較女性明顯偏低,未婚男性成婚期望年數(shù)大幅增加;農(nóng)村大齡未婚男性的規(guī)模始終較大、比例始終較高,城鎮(zhèn)大齡未婚男性群體也日益凸顯,2010~2020年 45歲及以上城鎮(zhèn)未婚男性由176.04萬人增至387.77萬人;大齡未婚男性的經(jīng)濟資源相對匱乏,對最低生活保障金的依賴加重,在老年階段處于不健康狀態(tài)的比例上升且獨居比例較高。

關(guān)鍵詞: 男性婚姻擠壓, 大齡未婚男性, 初婚概率, 成婚期望年數(shù), 第七次全國人口普查

Abstract: Using data from China's 7th Census and previous census data since 1990, this paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of marriage squeeze among men in recent decades. Results show that the marriage squeezes among men and its consequences have significantly manifested. The sex ratio of marriageable population has sharply increased from 2010 to 2020, and it is projected to peak at 116.13 by 2036. Unlike in the past, when the phenomenon was primarily concentrated in socio-economically underdeveloped regions, the surplus of never married men in economically developed areas with high urbanization rates becomes apparent. The marriage squeeze among men leads to substantial gender disparities in first marriage probabilities, with significantly lower probabilities of first marriage for men compared to women and a substantial increase in the expected number of years for never married men to get married. The scale of rural involuntary bachelors remains elevated, with urban areas experiencing a growing population of involuntary bachelors. The urban never married men aged 45 and above increased from 1.76 million to 3.88 million from 2010 to 2020. Involuntary bachelors have relatively limited economic resources, increased reliance on minimum subsistence allowance, and a rising proportion of unhealthy and solitary life in old age.    

Keywords: Male Marriage Squeeze, Involuntary Bachelors, The Probability of First Marriage, The Number of Years of Single Life Remaining, The 7th Population Census

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