摘要：

鑒于社交焦慮的高患病率和廣泛的不良后效, 大量理論和縱向研究對社交焦慮的發(fā)展進(jìn)行了探討, 但觀點(diǎn)和研究結(jié)果存在矛盾。為厘清爭議, 準(zhǔn)確刻畫社交焦慮平均水平變化和穩(wěn)定性的年齡趨勢, 采用三水平模型的方法, 對來自173項(xiàng)縱向研究的192個(gè)獨(dú)立樣本(N = 170197)進(jìn)行元分析。結(jié)果顯示: (1)在平均水平上, 社交焦慮從學(xué)步期至青年期呈逐步下降趨勢, 僅青春中期有小幅上升。(2)在穩(wěn)定性上, 社交焦慮在學(xué)步期和學(xué)前期較高, 在小學(xué)兒童期降至低谷后逐漸回升, 青年期穩(wěn)定在較高水平。(3)社交焦慮的平均水平變化不受研究特征、樣本特征和變量特征的影響。(4)社交焦慮的穩(wěn)定性受文章語言、大洲、文化、性別和測量方式的調(diào)節(jié)。(5)社交焦慮的穩(wěn)定性隨時(shí)間間隔變長呈先快后慢的下降趨勢。研究首次利用元分析技術(shù)刻畫了社交焦慮從學(xué)步期至青年期的發(fā)展趨勢, 其中發(fā)展軌跡總體上支持了人格成熟論, 穩(wěn)定上則呈現(xiàn)出較強(qiáng)的特質(zhì)屬性, 結(jié)果為探索社交焦慮的畢生發(fā)展和干預(yù)提供了新視角。

關(guān)鍵詞: 社交焦慮, 平均水平變化, 穩(wěn)定性, 縱向研究, 三水平元分析

Abstract:

Given the high prevalence and its extensive possible adverse outcomes, a large number of theoretical and longitudinal studies have explored the development of social anxiety, but the research findings are inconsistent or even contradictory in preschool childhood, late childhood, and adolescence. In addition, there is still debate between trait theory and state theory of social anxiety, and there is also a lack of study on the age trend of social anxiety stability.

To clarify the above controversies and accurately characterize the age trend of the mean level and the stability of social anxiety, this study conducted a meta-analysis of longitudinal studies involving social anxiety. After pre-registering the study protocol on PROSPERO, we searched literature in six databases (CNKI, Wanfang Data, Web of Science, ProQuest, PubMed, and EBOSCO). In addition, we also backtracked the references cited in previous meta-analyses and reviews. Ultimately, a total of 192 independent samples (N = 170, 192) from 173 longitudinal studies were included in the current meta-analysis. In order to quantify the trajectory of social anxiety more precisely, we divided the sample into 11 age groups according to the mean age of the sample between two adjacent measurement waves, and estimated the mean-level change and stability for each age group. The standardized mean difference (d) between two adjacent waves is used to estimate mean-level change, whereas the correlation coefficient (r) is used to estimate stability. Science most of the included studies reported multiple effect sizes, and these multiple effect sizes were most likely dependent, which violated the basic assumption of independent effect sizes in the conventional meta-analytic methods. We applied the three-level meta-analysis approach to handle such data-independency among effect sizes.

Results showed that: (1) The mean level of social anxiety showed a gradual decline from toddlerhood to young adulthood, with only slight increase in mid-adolescence. (2) In terms of rank-order stability, social anxiety rose slowly from toddlerhood to preschool childhood, then swiftly dropped to a low point in elementary childhood, recovered gradually after mid-adolescence, and stabilized at a high level in young adulthood. (3) The mean-level change of social anxiety was not affected by the study characteristics, the sample characteristics, and the variable characteristics. (4) The rank-order stability of social anxiety was moderated by written language, continent, culture, gender, and assessment mode. (5) The stability of social anxiety was a logarithmic function with time lag. Specifically, with the increase of time lag, the stability declined first quickly and then slowly, and almost reached a plateau after 6 years. (6) The results of moderator test for publication status, Egger's test, and Begg's test indicated the absence of publication bias in this meta-analysis.

This study makes a valuable contribution in characterizing the age-specific trends and stability of social anxiety from toddler to young adult by using the meta-analytic method. We conclude from this study that, in terms of mean level, the trajectory of social anxiety generally supports the personality maturation hypothesis. For stability, similar to personality traits, social anxiety tend to be a trait rather than a state construct. Overall, this study provides a new perspective for exploring the lifelong development of social anxiety.

Key words: social anxiety, mean-level change, rank-order stability, longitudinal studies, three-level meta-analysis

中圖分類號: 

B844

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